Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 257.190969 314.434323 385.779776 482.874303 614.195277 7.896440e+02 1.048967e+03
2025-07-27 196.182445 263.254592 358.256091 508.368037 751.343658 1.153114e+03 1.928414e+03
2025-08-03 160.752083 229.628829 336.198255 524.026205 873.937248 1.567582e+03 3.293029e+03
2025-08-10 135.897719 203.217524 314.491152 528.057276 974.716474 2.014083e+03 5.333591e+03
2025-08-17 116.085338 179.631617 290.072906 516.709202 1037.885990 2.432769e+03 8.108141e+03
2025-08-24 100.826860 160.367579 268.160535 502.083145 1086.140543 2.863118e+03 1.210817e+04
2025-08-31 88.798711 144.493374 248.836254 486.394363 1124.350097 3.311597e+03 1.798726e+04
2025-09-07 85.287311 143.270393 257.290013 535.570228 1369.508641 4.832881e+03 4.216927e+04
2025-09-14 78.509212 134.737388 249.008677 541.764641 1491.734752 6.071672e+03 8.313072e+04
2025-09-21 73.762340 129.393480 246.366054 561.787158 1678.243981 8.084611e+03 2.133964e+05
2025-09-28 68.015353 121.218343 235.901108 557.161657 1772.811476 9.818643e+03 5.194670e+05
2025-10-05 66.648754 121.820138 245.598610 614.755485 2180.170236 1.567758e+04 6.442895e+06
2025-10-12 64.507539 120.700257 251.592812 666.254580 2638.993047 2.558490e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 61.813999 118.009466 253.244082 705.283851 3098.867782 4.125425e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 58.735208 114.021135 250.754023 729.310205 3517.568421 6.467268e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 55.331265 108.842706 244.103441 735.508707 3838.501934 9.599610e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 51.521200 102.270590 232.492318 718.091650 3966.999173 1.268765e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 47.965141 95.932938 220.574060 695.717741 4037.492509 1.629077e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 44.734061 90.056184 209.114283 671.813626 4074.406990 2.059964e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 44.498120 91.440527 219.096433 747.069087 5256.319381 6.707793e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 42.550563 88.350172 215.112264 756.616166 5773.989886 1.432471e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 41.230172 86.705367 215.338681 787.576476 6683.373294 5.339162e+06 NaN
2025-12-21 39.202522 83.040137 208.593737 780.410601 7059.010218 1.527382e+07 NaN